Gameweek 9 has a deadline of Saturday 31 October, 11:00 UTC — ninety minutes before Chelsea host Manchester United at 12:30, with the clocks gone back on these shores.
Last week this desk built its page around the softest fixture on the board: Chelsea at home to Tottenham, difficulty 2, eleven goals in three home games. Chelsea lost 0-2. Palmer was sent off after 79 minutes and finished on minus one, João Pedro did not play, and the four Chelsea attackers we named — 152.5% of ownership — returned three points. The goalkeeper we told you to sell kept a clean sheet and scored nine. The lesson is not that the fixture board lies. It is that the board does not pick the team.
The fixture board
| Fixture | Difficulty | The number that matters |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Man Utd | 4 vs 4 | United have zero clean sheets in eight; Chelsea have scored 11 in four at home |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | 3 vs 3 | Leeds have conceded six all season, second only to Arsenal |
| Brentford vs Nott’m Forest | 3 vs 3 | Brentford have scored 8 in four at home; Forest have six goals in eight |
| Coventry vs Sunderland | 3 vs 2 | Two of the leakiest defences in the league, and Coventry at home |
| Hull vs Ipswich | 2 vs 2 | Ipswich are the only side without a clean sheet; Hull have three |
| Man City vs Brighton | 3 vs 5 | City have 11 goals in four at home; Brighton have 23, the most in the league |
| Tottenham vs Crystal Palace | 2 vs 3 | Palace have conceded 19, the most in the league, nine in four away games |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | 2 vs 3 | Fulham have scored twice in four away games |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 4 vs 4 | Liverpool have scored four goals in four home games all season |
| Newcastle vs Everton | 3 vs 3 | Everton have scored three in four away games; a Monday night to ignore |
Anfield is rated a 4 for both sides, but Liverpool have scored four goals in four home games and conceded five of their eight there, while Arsenal have shipped five in eight. The scariest fixture on the board is not the one to run from.
The captaincy call
Erling Haaland (£15.8m, 66 points, nine goals, form 9.0, 78.4% owned) has scored in seven consecutive gameweeks and owns the highest BPS total in the game at 303 — 72 clear of the next man. Fourteen bonus points, 6.09 expected goals, a goal every 79 minutes. City lost 2-1 at Villa Park last week, their first defeat of the season, and now come home, where they have scored eleven goals in four games.
Brighton are the counter-argument — the best attack in the league, five clean sheets, a 13-1 home record — but they are away, where the numbers are 10-6, and Anfield just beat them 2-0. They will have to defend at the Etihad without the ball. Haaland is the armband.
The form challenger is Nicolas Jackson (£6.8m, 34 points, form 8.0, 15.9%), who scored twice against City for 13 points and now faces Fulham at home — though Fulham have conceded three in four away games. Jackson is a genuine captain at £6.8m. He is not a better one than Haaland.
Then there is Chelsea, and the one place this desk will not follow the crowd. Cole Palmer (£9.8m, 37 points, two goals and four assists, 27.3%) was sent off for two yellow cards at Spurs — but a red-card ban carries across domestic competitions, and Chelsea’s next match was the EFL Cup tie at Anfield on Wednesday. The ban is served: he is available for United, and the sending-off costs him no Premier League minutes. Chelsea have scored eleven in four at home; United have conceded thirteen in eight, six of them away, and have not shut anyone out all season. A player this available, for this fixture, is being priced as if he were suspended.
The risk is form, not fitness: his last four returns read 2, 8, 2 and minus one. Neto (£6.6m, 37 points, form 7.7, 4.5%) has matched his points total for £3.2m less, and Rogers (£8.0m, 41 points, 50.4%) played ninety minutes against the softest fixture last week and returned one. Start Rogers. Do not captain him.
Ruled out on fixture, not form: Isak (£9.1m, 51 points, six goals, fourteen bonus) walks into an Arsenal side that has conceded five all season, in a Liverpool team that has scored four goals in four home games. A low-ceiling afternoon.
Best picks by position
Goalkeepers. Tzolakis (£4.7m, 42 points, six bonus, 14.3%) is the pick for the second week running: Hull are at home to the only side without a clean sheet, and have conceded three goals in four home games. Ipswich have scored seven on the road, so this is a saves-and-bonus fixture rather than a guaranteed shutout — which the new BPS rules reward, at three points for a save from inside the box. Kinsky (£4.4m, 32 points, 15.1%) gets Palace at home, and Palace have scored three in four away games. We said sell last week and were wrong by nine; this week he starts. Raya (£6.2m, 49 points) is a start, not a sell.
Defenders. Konsa (£4.7m, 39 points, form 9.0, 20.6%) is the cheapest route into the meanest defence in the league, with a goal and five bonus already; White (£5.4m, 42 points, three assists, 4.6%) is the same bet at a third of the ownership. Gabriel (£7.9m, 52 points) returned 17 last week and is a hold through Anfield, not a buy. Van Hecke (£4.9m, 38 points, 8.6%) has played every minute of all eight and faces that same Palace attack; Egan (£4.1m, 35 points, 7.3%) is the cheapest route into Hull’s clean-sheet story. Respect the flag on Calafiori (49.9% owned, 75% with a hip injury) — a coin flip for a game Arsenal will spend defending. Bench the Brighton pair, De Cuyper (£5.3m, 60 points) and Vuskovic (£5.2m, 52 points): they go to the Etihad.
Midfielders. Tavernier (£6.4m, 52 points, five goals, 12 bonus, form 7.0) has the most bonus points of any midfielder and the second-highest BPS total in the game at 231 — a player who does not need a soft fixture to justify £6.4m, which is as well, because Leeds have conceded six all season. Belloumi (£5.2m, 43 points, 9.9%) is the value pick at home to Ipswich. Mbeumo (£7.9m, 43 points, four goals, 4.22 expected goals) is the United half of the Chelsea fixture. Hold Groß (£6.2m, 58 points, 46.0%), the highest-scoring midfielder, who goes to the Etihad. Barnes (£6.1m, 40 points, 7.6%) is the quiet Newcastle pick at home to Everton.
Forwards. Haaland and Jackson are the two names. Evanilson (£6.3m, 43 points, form 8.3, 10.6%) is the cheap partner — though Leeds’ away record makes it a form bet, not a fixture gift. Solanke (£5.8m, 19 points in 375 minutes, 1.5%) gets the softest defence he will face all season in Palace and still should not be bought: the fixture says yes, the season says no.
Differentials worth a flutter
| Player | Pos | Club | Price | Pts | Form | Owned | GW9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto | MID | Chelsea | £6.6m | 37 | 7.7 | 4.5% | MUN (H) 4 |
| Belloumi | MID | Hull | £5.2m | 43 | 4.0 | 9.9% | IPS (H) 2 |
| Van Hecke | DEF | Tottenham | £4.9m | 38 | 4.7 | 8.6% | CRY (H) 2 |
| Egan | DEF | Hull | £4.1m | 35 | 3.0 | 7.3% | IPS (H) 2 |
| Tel | MID | Tottenham | £5.6m | 20 | 4.0 | 0.4% | CRY (H) 2 |
| Manzambi | MID | Aston Villa | £6.1m | 31 | 5.7 | 5.4% | FUL (H) 2 |
| Henderson | MID | Chelsea | £4.9m | 25 | 7.7 | 1.7% | MUN (H) 4 |
Neto at 4.5% is the pick of the table: 37 points, form 7.7, and a home fixture against the only defence without a clean sheet — for £3.2m less than Palmer. Tel returned 11 points in 88 minutes last week at 0.4%, and Palace have conceded nine in four away games. Manzambi has 31 points in 319 minutes, a 6.2 points-per-game rate, against a Fulham side that has scored twice in four away games. Henderson is the bench enabler outscoring most £7m midfielders per minute.
One to avoid: João Pedro and the Chelsea treatment room
João Pedro (£7.8m, 47 points, five goals and three assists, 7.8 points per game, 58.7% owned) is flagged with a thigh injury and no return date, and did not play a minute of Gameweek 8. On points per game he is the second-best forward in the game; on availability he is worth nothing, and nearly three in five managers are holding him. Chelsea’s fixture is the best on the board, and you cannot access it through a player who cannot train.
Three more flags before you set a line-up. Saka (£9.5m, thigh, no return date) should be sold rather than benched. Rice (£7.4m, 75%) is a doubt in the same match, and two flagged Arsenal players at Anfield is how a clean sheet becomes a zero. Szoboszlai (£6.7m, 14.4%) has a hamstring injury, also with no return date.
Bottom line
Captain Haaland — seven straight gameweeks with a goal, the highest BPS total in the game, Brighton’s away record in front of him — with Palmer the alternative for anyone chasing, now the suspension myth is dead. Tzolakis and Kinsky are the goalkeeper starts; Konsa and White let you own the Arsenal defence without paying Gabriel’s £7.9m; Tavernier and Belloumi are the midfield value; Jackson is the only forward worth pairing with him. To gain ground, Neto at 4.5% is the name. To protect your rank, sell João Pedro before the deadline does it for you.
The fixture board is a starting point, not a team sheet. That is how the commentary desk calls it.
Methodology & credit: All prices, ownership figures, points, form, minutes, expected goals, bonus and BPS totals, and injury flags are taken from the official FPL API (bootstrap-static, fixtures and element-summary endpoints), snapshot 30 October 2026, ahead of the Gameweek 9 deadline of Saturday 31 October, 11:00 UTC. Fixture difficulties are the official FPL 1-5 team difficulty values for Gameweek 9; team goals for and against, and home and away splits, are computed from the 80 completed fixtures in the same snapshot. No price, ownership figure or injury flag is estimated. Cole Palmer’s availability is confirmed by the Premier League and BBC Sport: his one-match ban for two yellow cards at Tottenham was served in the EFL Cup tie at Liverpool on 28 October. This is editorial analysis, not a guarantee — verify prices and press conferences before you transfer, because both move.