Goals are the scoreboard, but expected goals are the confession. A striker can outscore his xG for a season on luck; he cannot do it for five. So before the Gameweek 1 deadline on Friday 21 August, we pulled the full 2025/26 expected-stats ledger for every player in the Premier League and asked a simple question: which players are carrying their team’s attacking output, and which ones are about to regress?
The numbers below are 2025/26 season totals — expected goals (xG), expected assists (xA) and expected goal involvements (xGI) — for the players who will likely play the most important roles for their clubs in the coming campaign. Prices and ownership are from the official FPL API as of 1 August 2026. The season hasn’t started yet; this is the last reliable data we have on who can actually finish a chance, and who just looks like they can.
The headline ledger
Before the club-by-club breakdown, the league-wide picture. These were the biggest expected-goal involvements of 2025/26 — the players whose teams funnelled chance after chance through them:
| Player | Club | Pos | Goals | Assists | xG | xA | xGI | xG/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | MCI | FWD | 27 | 8 | 25.50 | 2.67 | 28.17 | 0.78 |
| Thiago | BRE | FWD | 22 | 1 | 20.44 | 1.78 | 22.22 | 0.59 |
| Bruno Fernandes | MUN | MID | 8 | 21 | 10.53 | 11.25 | 21.78 | 0.33 |
| Enzo Fernández | CHE | MID | 10 | 5 | 11.26 | 7.26 | 18.52 | 0.33 |
| João Pedro | CHE | FWD | 15 | 9 | 14.32 | 1.96 | 16.28 | 0.50 |
| Calvert-Lewin | LEE | FWD | 13 | 2 | 15.02 | 1.03 | 16.04 | 0.53 |
| Mateta | CRY | FWD | 11 | 0 | 14.04 | 1.31 | 15.35 | 0.58 |
| Watkins | AVL | FWD | 14 | 4 | 14.16 | 1.17 | 15.33 | 0.46 |
| Saka | ARS | MID | 7 | 9 | 7.37 | 6.87 | 14.24 | 0.31 |
| Semenyo | MCI | MID | 16 | 6 | 10.97 | 2.99 | 13.95 | 0.32 |
| Gyökeres | ARS | FWD | 14 | 1 | 12.10 | 1.83 | 13.92 | 0.50 |
| Welbeck | BHA | FWD | 13 | 1 | 12.15 | 1.38 | 13.53 | 0.51 |
| Ekitiké | LIV | FWD | 11 | 4 | 10.10 | 2.45 | 12.55 | 0.51 |
| Cole Palmer | CHE | MID | 9 | 2 | 10.14 | 2.38 | 12.52 | 0.51 |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | MID | 13 | 4 | 9.44 | 2.83 | 12.27 | 0.29 |
Manchester City — the machine, plus the new artillery
Haaland remains the single most efficient chance-taker on the planet: 25.50 xG and 27 goals at 0.78 xG/90 — a rate no other forward in this data set comes within a quarter of. At £15.5m and 75% ownership, the anchor decision is already made for you. The interesting new names sit behind him: Antoine Semenyo arrives having outscored his xG by five (16 goals, 10.97 xG) and is priced £8.5m with 21% ownership, and Rayan Cherki — 13 assists, 8.74 xA, the second-highest xA in this dataset — gives City a set-piece and chance-creation hub at £7.5m. Foden (10.79 xGI in a patchy season) is the value case if the minutes come.
Brentford — the one-man xG engine
Thiago is the quiet monster of this dataset: 20.44 xG, 22 goals, 0.59 xG/90, all at £8.0m and 16% ownership. Brentford built their entire attack around him and it worked. Schade (10.96 xG, £6.0m) was the sidekick; O. Dango (12.06 xGI) was the most involved winger. If Thiago’s minutes hold, he is the single best value premium-forward case in the game.
Manchester United — the creator-in-chief
Bruno Fernandes led the entire league in expected assists (11.25 xA) and actual assists (21) while scoring eight. 21.78 xGI from midfield, £12.0m, 49% ownership — he is the template’s engine. The supporting cast is genuinely deep: Mbeumo (13.45 xGI after the move, £8.0m), Šeško (0.51 xG/90 — the best per-minute rate of United’s forwards, £7.0m) and Cunha (9.45 xGI, £8.0m). United’s kind opening three fixtures (Hull away, Ipswich home, Everton away) make this the attack to stack early.
Chelsea — regression candidates and a midfield goal machine
Three names, three very different stories. João Pedro (14.32 xG, 15 goals) is the most-owned striker in the game at 54.5% — the template’s anchor pick, and the numbers justify it. Enzo Fernández scored ten from midfield on 11.26 xG with 7.26 xA — 18.52 xGI from a £7.0m midfielder is elite. And Cole Palmer is the interesting one: an injury-shortened 1,776 minutes, but 0.51 xG/90 — a rate only Haaland and a handful of forwards beat. At £9.5m he is the cheapest premium in the game precisely because last season’s total looks small; the per-90 says the ceiling is intact.
Leeds — the £6.0m target man
Calvert-Lewin delivered the season Leeds bought him for: 15.02 xG, 13 goals, 0.53 xG/90, at £6.0m with 18% ownership. Wilson (10 goals, 8 assists, 10.51 xGI, £6.5m) is the set-piece and delivery threat, and Nmecha posted the best per-90 in this entire list (0.65 xG/90) across 945 injury-limited minutes. If he stays fit, £5.5m buys you a striker with the efficiency profile of a premium.
Crystal Palace — a volume-shooting front line
Mateta (14.04 xG, 0.58 xG/90) is a chance volcano who converted 11 of them — the profile suggests the goals will come in bunches. Sarr (10.93 xG, £6.5m) was Palace’s second runner, and Yeremy (6.12 xA) was the league’s quietest top-five creator. Palace’s attack is cheap, fixture-flexible and entirely data-defensible.
Aston Villa — the reliable banker
Watkins did exactly what the model said: 14 goals on 14.16 xG, 0.46 xG/90, £8.0m. No overperformance, no underperformance — just a striker who converts his chances at par and stays fit. That consistency is why he remains a fixture-proof pick. The supporting numbers are thinner (Garnacho 7.12 xGI, McGinn 7.01), which makes Watkins the pick and the rest wait-and-see.
Arsenal — the champions’ reshaped attack
Two new names carry the xG story at the Emirates. Gyökeres arrived and delivered immediately: 14 goals, 12.10 xG, 0.50 xG/90 at £7.5m — a genuine premium-forward profile without the premium price. Saka (7.37 xG, 6.87 xA) played only 2,128 minutes through injury but still posted 14.24 xGI — 0.31 xG/90 from a winger is elite, and at £9.5m he is the discount premium of the season if he’s fully fit. Rice (7.28 xA, 3,003 minutes) is the reliable floor.
Bournemouth — the overperformance twins
This is the club to study for regression. Kroupi Jr scored 13 goals on just 8.10 xG — one of the biggest overperformances in the league, at 18 years old, now £7.5m. Evanilson did the opposite: 6 goals on 10.58 xG — he left five goals on the table and is now the value case at £6.0m. Tavernier (13.66 xGI, £6.0m) was the most complete attacker. If you believe in finishing skill, Kroupi; if you believe in the model, Evanilson.
Brighton — the ageless wonder
Welbeck posted 12.15 xG and 13 goals at 0.51 xG/90 — a rate he has now sustained into his mid-thirties, making £6.0m the best per-90 value in the forward pool. Minteh (8.47 xGI) and Mitoma (6.78 xGI in limited minutes) provide the ceiling if Brighton’s new signings click.
Liverpool — shared creation, no single hero
Liverpool spread the load more than any top-six side: Ekitiké (10.10 xG, 0.51 xG/90, £7.5m) leads the forwards, Gakpo (12.23 xGI) the wingers, Wirtz (11.20 xGI) the creators, and Szoboszlai — 48% owned at £7.0m — the captaincy-adjacent floor. No Liverpool attacker hits a Haaland-style ceiling, which is precisely why they rotate captaincy. Ekitiké at 0.2% ownership is the differential of the group.
Nottingham Forest — one-man band, elite tier
Gibbs-White (13 goals, 12.27 xGI, £8.0m) is Forest’s entire creative output and priced accordingly. Behind him the numbers fall off a cliff (Igor Jesus 7.74, Hutchinson 5.88), which makes Forest a one-asset team in FPL terms — but that one asset is a captaincy option in the right fixtures.
Everton — the budget midfield engine
Ndiaye (11.09 xGI, £6.0m, 18% ownership) is the pick of the budget mids: 6 goals, 3 assists, 4.41 xA — he creates as much as he finishes. Dewsbury-Hall (9.69 xGI) and Beto (9 goals, 0.52 xG/90, £5.5m) round out an attack that scores by committee. For a £6.0m midfielder with a fixture-proof role, Ndiaye is the most complete data profile in his price band.
Tottenham — a striker’s bounce and a defender’s upside
Richarlison (11 goals, 8.64 xG, £6.0m) had his best full season in years and the numbers finally backed him. Pedro Porro (5.42 xGI, 24% ownership, £5.5m) remains the attacking-full-back case under the new BPS, and Senesi — a centre-back with 6.22 xGI — is the quiet set-piece monster of the defensive pool. Spurs’ attack is still assembling, which makes these three the value plays rather than headline names.
Newcastle — Bruno Guimarães carries the creation
Bruno G. (9 goals, 7 assists, 10.03 xGI, £7.0m) is the engine room and the pick. Barnes (9.09 xGI) and Woltemade (7.69 xGI) offer the ceiling but split minutes. Newcastle remains a “buy the platform, not the roulette” club.
Sunderland — Le Fée’s breakout
Enzo Le Fée (10.02 xGI — 4 goals, 5 assists, 5.00 xA from midfield, £6.0m) was Sunderland’s standout creator in their return season. Brobbey (21.9% ownership, £6.0m) is the popular forward despite modest numbers (5.11 xG) — the market is buying the profile, not last season’s output.
Fulham — thin, but Iwobi is the floor
Iwobi (6.61 xGI, £5.5m) is Fulham’s most reliable attacker; Smith Rowe (5.83 xGI) the upside case if he finally stays fit. There is no premium profile here — Fulham is a one-asset club until a striker arrives.
The promoted trio — no data, no problem
Coventry, Hull and Ipswich spent 2025/26 in the Championship, so they have no Premier League xG history in this ledger. What the dataset does tell us: Tchaouna (Coventry, £5.5m) is the only returning PL regular with real minutes, and Diop (Ipswich, £4.0m, 20% ownership) is this season’s bench-fodder favourite. Treat promoted players as unknowns until GW3-5, when the model finally has Premier League samples to work with.
What the ledger says
Three takeaways before you lock the squad. First, the per-90 leaders are the real story: Haaland (0.78), Thiago (0.59), Mateta (0.58), Calvert-Lewin (0.53), Palmer (0.51) — a list that looks like a premium forward shortlist, except half of it is priced at £6-7.5m. Second, the biggest overperformers are the biggest traps: Kroupi Jr scored 13 on 8.10 xG; Semenyo 16 on 10.97. Regression is a transfer waiting to happen. Third, the creators are underpriced relative to the scorers: Bruno (11.25 xA), Cherki (8.74 xA), Saka (6.87 xA) — the league is pricing goals, not the passes that make them.
Pick your lane, trust the ledger, and we’ll see you at the top of the table. That’s the way the commentary desk calls it.
Methodology & credit: All xG, xA and xGI figures are 2025/26 season totals for players on 2026/27 Premier League rosters, courtesy of the FPL Core Insights dataset (github.com/olbauday/FPL-Core-Insights), which sources player expected-stats from the official FPL API (Opta model) and curates match-level statistics. Prices and ownership percentages are from the official FPL API, snapshot 1 August 2026. Players with fewer than 300 minutes last season were excluded. Coventry, Hull and Ipswich are excluded from the per-team tables as they had no 2025/26 Premier League data.